Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights: Preview & Prediction
Sunday footy at Brookvale Oval has all the makings of a desperate scrap, with both the Sea Eagles and Knights searching for their first win of the young season after contrasting round one results.
For Manly, it’s about avoiding an 0-2 start at home before the bye, a scenario that would pile early pressure on a side many tipped to struggle.
For the Knights, it’s a chance to prove their opening win was no fluke and that they can finally crack the code away from home.
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly couldn’t have asked for a crueler start to their campaign, going down 29-28 in golden point to the Raiders after leading late.
The scoreline flattered them slightly—Canberra took their foot off thinking the game was won, but the Sea Eagles showed enough fight to suggest they’re not going away quietly.
The bigger concern is the injury front, with Tom Trbojevic set to miss another month after scans confirmed an MCL tear suffered in the final trial.
That’s a massive blow for a side already light on for middle penetration. Lehi Hopoate shifts to fullback in his absence, with Clayton Faulalo expected to come onto the wing.
The forward pack remains a worry—Jake Trbojevic and Kobe Hetherington offer plenty of defence but minimal go-forward, and the bench featuring Nathan Brown and Joey Walsh looks thin by NRL standards.
Newcastle Knights
Newcastle, meanwhile, opened their account with a workmanlike 28-18 win over the Cowboys.
Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best looked dangerous whenever they got early ball, and new recruit Trey Mooney added starch to a middle that’s been bullied in recent years.
The Knights will be without Fletcher Sharpe for another week—his PCL complaint ruling him out until at least Round 3—which matters because Newcastle are 0-11 when he doesn’t play since his debut.
Sandon Smith gets another crack in the halves after a steady showing, while Harrison Graham is in the extended squad and could debut from the bench.
The forward rotation looks settled, with the Frizell-Croker-Mooney axis providing plenty of experience.
History suggests Brookvale hasn’t been kind to the visitors—Newcastle have won just four of their 23 trips to the venue.
But the head-to-head ledger overall is remarkably close, with both sides having put big scores on each other over the years.
The Knights will take confidence from their forward pack matching up well against Manly’s—on paper, the Sea Eagles’ middles look the weakest in the comp, and if Paseka and Taukeiaho can be contained, there’s not much coming behind them.
Sea Eagles vs Knights: Best Odds
| 🏈 ️ Bookmaker | ⭐️ Sea Eagles | 💎 Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 🏈 ️ Stake | 1.51 | 2.39 |
| 🏈 ️ Betway | 1.52 | 2.41 |
| 🏈 ️ Betcha | 1.57 | 2.45 |
| 🏈 ️ 20 Bet | 1.56 | 2.37 |
| 🏈 ️ SpinBet | 1.52 | 2.60 |
Prediction for Sea Eagles vs Knights
The data models give Manly around 57% at home, and the bookies have them short favourites. But this feels like one of those games where the paper gap doesn’t tell the full story.
Manly’s edge weapons—Koula, Saab, Garrick—can hurt anyone on their day, and Hopoate has shown he’s a more than capable fill-in at fullback.
But the middle third is a genuine concern, and against a Knights pack that’s finally got some punch, that’s where the game will be won and lost.
Newcastle by 6 in a tight one.
