NRL Round 4 Preview & Prediction: Broncos vs Dolphins

Broncos

vs

Dolphins

Fri 27 Mar 2026, 22:00

Suncorp Stadium should be buzzing on Friday night. Kick-off is set for 8:00 pm in Brisbane and 10:00 pm in New Zealand.

This local derby rarely lacks heat, and this one already feels full of pressure.

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos head toward this clash with real questions around them. They opened the season with a 22-0 loss to Penrith.

Then they gave up 40 points in a 40-32 defeat to Parramatta at home. Their attack has shown flashes, but the balance still looks shaky.

Reece Walsh and Kotoni Staggs can break a game open. Still, Brisbane have not looked calm enough for long stretches.

There’s some uncertainty around the squad, with Adam Reynolds dealing with a rib injury.

Brendan Piakura is only just pushing back into the frame. Jack Gosiewski is also dealing with concussion trouble.

That is not the ideal build-up for a derby against a quick side.

Dolphins

The Dolphins look a little more settled right now. They lost 40–30 to South Sydney in Round 1, but their attack still looked dangerous. Then they came from 14-0 down to beat the Titans after a huge second-half swing.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was the spark again, and Herbie Farnworth kept them dangerous out wide. Max Plath and Ray Stone also gave them a timely lift on return.

There is still some risk with the Dolphins. Their first-half defence against South Sydney was too loose.

Tom Flegler also suffered a rib injury against the Titans, but there’s a more positive feel around the side. They look fast, aggressive and more composed with the ball than Brisbane do right now.

Recent history does lean toward the Broncos. They have won five of the six meetings between these clubs. They also won both derby clashes last season. That matters, especially in a game like this.

But current form suggests this contest will be tighter than the rivalry record indicates.

So, who are we backing here?

Broncos vs Dolphins: Best Odds

Prediction for Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins

This looks closer than many will expect. The Broncos still have the higher ceiling at their best. They have more raw power through the middle, and home ground matters.

But right now the Dolphins look a touch more reliable. Their shape has been cleaner, and Tabuai-Fidow gives them a huge edge in broken play.

If Brisbane’s defence wobbles again, the Dolphins can punish them very quickly.

Our bet is on the Dolphins to win a close one. The Broncos should make this intense and physical.

Still, the Dolphins look more likely to handle the key moments better.

A Dolphins win by 2 to 6 points.